Everyone is now saying that the over is a must-bet.
The over-under for the Celtics vs Heat Game 5 is 204 – which is definitely low. The question is – should you bet it?
Let’s look at the total points in the first four games of the series.
Game 1: 225
Game 2: 229
Game 3: 212
Game 4: 184
So out of the 4 games so far more than 204 points has been scored 3 times. In most cases, it is by a lot.
We also have the injury bug to deal with. If Smart or Williams are out that hurts the Celtics’ defense which helps the over.
Injuries could also hurt the over as well. As I’m writing this blog Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, PJ Tucker, and Gabe Vicent are all questionable. If any of these players are out (besides PJ Tucker) the Heat’s offense will be a little less powerful.
This leads me to my one warning to those who view this as a definite hit – there is a reason the Heat only scored 184 in the last game. Herro was out and Butler is still injured. The Heat is simply running out of weapons on offense.
My prediction on this game was a 110-95 Celtics win – so I think the over is a hit. I’m just skeptical that the over is the easy hit many are making this out to be.
The Heat very well may have another terrible game. if that is the case we will be relying on simply the Celtics to carry the scoring load.